After a couple of extra years waiting the Taupo 70.3 World Champs are finally upon us. Given the magnitude of the event it seems appropriate to model the new course and discuss the weather forecast.
The Lake
As you start your day from the beach you'll be pleased to know that the lake level is very near the top of the permitted operating range, so you shouldn't need to run in the shallows too much. The outflow is currently fairly low so there won't be much pull and the temperature is near 19deg C which is normal for this time of year.
Navigation could hardly be easier though the Pros and early waves may find sunstrike to be a little bit of a problem. By the later waves only the leg into shore will have significant sunstrike. The hills and town should provide some protection from this.
Suncalc.org shows that by 9am the sun will be nearly due West
Day 1: Women
At this stage, the Ladies are getting the better of the weather with dry conditions and low air pressure (which is faster). However, the wind direction means a headwind all the way back on the bike and it will get warm later on. If you're visiting NZ for the first time - please take care to sunscreen thoroughly as the UV index is very high. If you're from NZ or have been here before you should be aware of this already.
The image above is from mywindsock.com - it shows the wind direction as you go around the course. This is the prevailing wind direction for Taupo and hampers speed the most on this course. Which is explained by the elevation graph - headwind and false flat/uphill together tend to knock your pace a bit.
This analysis is based on hitting the road at 8am - which means one of the earlier AG waves. If you are starting later - the wind and temperature will pick up a little - making the course slightly faster.
The yaw (wind angle that you feel) will be very low. To the point that a full disc wheel would only have an advantage of ~25s over a deep section wheel. So don't fret if you don't have a disc or left it behind.
Day 2: Men
It is looking less promising for the Lads, the current forecast shows a fair amount of precipitation. So a reduced focus on sunscreen and more thought about keeping warm in the early part of the bike. However, forecasting is quite difficult on this island stuck between a couple of oceans and the weather can change quite quickly.
Aside from the dampness, the Men get more headwind time but overall slightly faster conditions. Slightly more yaw but not enough to make your disc wheel a significant advantage. Still - if you have one - every little counts.
Note that there is a tailwind forecast for View road so please be careful of the high speeds possible down there.
As with day 1, the temperature will rise, just not by as much. If it's not raining for the run it will be humid so you will feel hot
The Run
On both days you will be looking at the lake just metres from the course and considering whether to run straight in. On day 1 the sun will make you feel that way, on day 2 it will be the humidity if the rain stops. The wind direction over the lake should provide a cooling breeze for most of the course.
Conclusion
Overall the conditions are good - while the wind is from the least favourable direction it is forecast to be low. The forecast for Sunday has improved each day that I've looked so there is a chance that it will be fairly mild.
And for the spectators - remember your hats, sunscreen, silly sign and cheer everyone you see. For the ladies who've already competed and are watching the men - don't start the bubbles too early...